Heavy  Rainfall Expected This Week

We continue to expect a heavy rainfall event to unfold as an area of low pressure shifts slowly westward across the area while already abundant tropical moisture increases further. As the low pressure system moves westward, increasingly southerly winds push additional tropical moisture into our area, especially along and east of I-65. This results in the heaviest rainfall amounts generally along and east of I-65, with the rainfall amounts adding up to produce flooding impacts mostly in this portion including coastal areas, and progressively less so further to the west.  

Here is the latest summary of potential impacts for our area:

Heavy rainfall/flooding:  

The Stage Is Being Set – Scattered to numerous showers and storms develop today, with the heaviest amounts falling mostly along and east of I-65 but also potentially further to the west. These showers and storms will moisten soil conditions for much of the area and set the stage for flooding problems to start to develop as heavier rains fall later on.

Rainfall Amounts Increase Tuesday Through Friday – The heaviest rainfall amounts continue to be expected to fall generally along and east of I-65 through the period and especially over the coastal counties, and will fall on moist to saturated soil conditions. We continue to see a Significant Threat for flooding issues along and east of I-65, with an Elevated Threat for much of the remaining portion further to the west. Areas of flash flooding are possible in the Significant Threat area, with isolated flash flooding further to the west. Please see the attached Flood Threat graphic depicting these areas.

Heavy Rainfall Potential Continues This Weekend – There is the potential for locally heavy rains and flooding problems to continue this weekend. Preliminary indications are that this heavy rainfall potential will mostly affect the southern half of the area, such as south of Highway 84.

Note About Storm Total Rainfall Amounts – The important thing to remember is that while our forecast amounts may vary as we assess the situation, the pattern remains consistent in targeting our area mostly along and east of I-65. I’ve attached our latest expected rainfall totals through Saturday which shows amounts of 6 to nearly 13 inches along and east of I-65 with lesser amounts further to the west. Locally higher amounts almost always occur in these types of weather patterns, possibly significantly higher.

River flooding:

Just like our flash flooding risk areas, we see a Significant Threat for minor to moderate river flooding roughly along and east of I-65, with an Elevated Threat area for minor river flooding for most of the area further to the west.